Electric Vehicles threaten to disrupt the status quo through government support
To survive in today’s competitive environment, car makers must embrace emerging business models to find pockets of growth opportunities
The Electric Vehicle Market comprises three main segments, namely plug-in electric vehicle, full electric vehicle, and hybrid electric vehicle. These three segments are further covered with respect to different technologies such as plug-in charging, wireless charging, energy harvesting, light-weighting material, organic and flexible electronics, high power electronics, key sensing technologies, infotainment, HVAC, as well as different types of business models. The internal report by Automo showcases the complete outlook of the electric vehicle and also provide the impact analysis till 2030.
The Global Automotive division at Automo has evaluated multiple technologies and has assessed the recent developments, innovations, driving factors and challenges, patent analysis, regional impacts, business models, governmental support and initiatives, and future prospects with regard to technology. All these factors are covered with respect to individual technology in electric vehicles.
As per the International Energy Agency (IEA), new electric vehicle or light motor vehicle sales of approximately 750 thousand units was recorded in 2016. The ‘’Global EV Outlook 2018” report highlights that the number of global electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) outlets had surpassed 2 million in 2016. The total stocks of Plugin Hybrid battery electric cars in the U.S. reached 805k units in 2016 from 70k units in 2012.
The electric vehicle Plugin Hybrid market registered 287 thousand unit sales in terms of volume in 2016 and is estimated to reach 14,497 thousand units sales by 2030. With the increasing demand for electric-based vehicles and the reliability of the internal combustion engine, the market is anticipated to grow at a steady pace during the forecast period 2018–2030.
With Volvo aiming to sell 50% electric car by 2025. The market would remain steady during the forecast period and would also experience a relatively slow growth due to the huge demand from the battery electric vehicle segment. The PHEV segment is projected to experience a CAGR of 33.78% during the forecast period 2018–2030.
The Battery electric vehicle market registered 466 thousand unit sales in terms of volume in 2016. With the government from various countries restoring the incentives and many other countries introducing new incentive structures, the market would experience a steady growth during the forecast period and register a volume sales of 41,750 thousand units by 2030
Wireless charging stations are being developed as a part of government initiative and EV manufacturers are actively involved in the development of wireless charging spots in the parking locations. EV manufacturers are focusing on establishing wireless charging stations for electric cars to enhance the sales of electric vehicles. Many companies have started preparatory actions to ensure the availability of public wireless charging infrastructure by 2020 in both developed and developing economies due to which, the EV market is gaining momentum.
Wireless charging will be provided as a retrofit solution in the near term by OEMs such as Daimler, Audi, BMW, and others. It is expected to be offered as a default option in the medium term. This will further trigger the growth of static charging equipment. In the medium to long term, dynamic charging equipment will be introduced in the market, which is expected to disrupt the electric vehicle charging segment. In 2018, an estimated 60,000 units of Wireless electric vehicle charging equipment is anticipated to be sold and this would increase to more than 101,617,987 by 2030.
The electric vehicle energy harvesting market majorly consists of Electric alternator which harvests energy using regenerative breaking and a forthcoming technology which consists of the hydraulic alternator which would be used in the suspension of an electric vehicle. Both these technologies are anticipated to play a key role in driving the energy harvesting market. The energy harvesting market is anticipated to grow at CAGR of over 59.62%. The energy harvesting market would experience a spike of 858% in 2020 after the hydraulic actuators are employed along with the electric alternators. Furthermore, the market is anticipated to generate $16,219m in revenue by 2030.
The increasing demand for electric vehicles or light motor vehicles would lead to the decline in prices of the lithium-based electric vehicle battery technologies. The battery prices are anticipated to plummet to $100 per kilowatt hour by 2025. Major manufacturers, such as Toyota, are also trying to build solid-state batteries technologies to further improve the efficiency of the electric vehicle. The global Electric vehicle battery technology market was estimated to be worth $5.9m in 2017. Owing to the declining battery cost and lower adoption of electric vehicles in a few European nations due to lack of proper incentives coupled with the reduction in battery price, the market has experienced a slight decline. This is forecast to increase during 2018–2030 with most of the major countries pledging to move to all-electric fleet by 2040. The battery accounts for a major part of the electric vehicle cost. With the declining battery cost, the adoption rate of electric vehicles is anticipated to increase. Majority of the OEMs are trying to reduce the cost similar to that of the ICE-based vehicles, which would address a major challenge in the adoption of the electric vehicles.
The increasing weight of the vehicles is leading to a reduction in efficiency and range, and consequently, increasing the carbon footprint. To reduce the increasing carbon footprint, there is a dire need to reduce the weight of the vehicles. To address this issue, major OEMs have made innovations in reducing the weight majorly through use of various materials such as aluminum, carbon reinforced plastic fiber, high strength steel, and others, in the electric vehicle’s body.
The Organic LED penetration rate in the exterior automotive lighting market is anticipated to grow steadily. Among the various exterior automotive lighting applications, high/low beam headlamps are seeing the strongest growth initially, because of technological improvements of high-power LEDs. This will further change the landscape of interior displays and dashboard lighting.
The market for power electronics was valued at $112m in 2017 and is forecast to generate $1,150m in revenue by 2030. The market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 20% during the forecast period i.e. 2018-2030. The market for high power electronics is anticipated to catch pace post 2020 as Silicon carbide (SiC) gains momentum.
With the increasing demand and OEMs trying to achieve economies of scale, the price of electric vehicles would go down, and consequently, the cost of insurance. Also with the government promoting electric mobility, the insurance cost is anticipated to further fall by 2025. Given the advanced safety driving assistance, crash avoidance technology, improving battery safety and other such features, the insurance providers deem it as a low-risk vehicle. The average insurance for an electric car is $1472.17 as compared to the ICE which is $ 1018.14. The high cost of the electric vehicle is the major hindering factor for adoption.